US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides detailed definitions of qualifying strikes, including specific weapon types and exclusions for territorial waters, artillery, naval shelling, and intercepted projectiles even if debris impacts land.
Read the full assessment
The market provides detailed definitions of qualifying strikes, including specific weapon types and exclusions for territorial waters, artillery, naval shelling, and intercepted projectiles even if debris impacts land. However, resolution relies on determining a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single authoritative registry or official source, leaving latitude to the decider. Additionally, there is an attribution clause where statements by Donald Trump specifically count as confirmation, and a strict timeout provision that resolves the market to No if confirmation is not established within two days after the cutoff, even if evidence emerges later.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
10%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States conducts a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts the soil of Cuba by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the terrestrial territory of Cuba is announced, claimed by Donald Trump or the US government, or credibly reported by the listed date ET. Qualifying strikes include aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military, intelligence, or other government operatives that physically impact ground territory, rivers, lakes, or ports. Intercepted drones or missiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and strikes on territorial seas do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying strike is confirmed by the end of the second day after the resolution time. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·