Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a specific list of qualifying countries and a clear end date, but determining whether an operation counts as an invasion relies on subjective criteria.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a specific list of qualifying countries and a clear end date, but determining whether an operation counts as an invasion relies on subjective criteria. Deciding if a military action constitutes an offensive 'intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory' requires interpreting military intent, which can be difficult to distinguish from limited strikes, special operations, or temporary enforcement actions. Additionally, resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official declaration or named authority, leaving significant discretion to whoever evaluates the reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States will launch a military offensive to gain control of territory in a specified Latin American country by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of a qualifying Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying countries include Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. Land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the U.S. at market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·