Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines an invasion clearly as the commencement of a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Greenland's recognized land territory before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market defines an invasion clearly as the commencement of a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Greenland's recognized land territory before the end of 2026. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official body or government declaration, requiring deciders to evaluate news coverage if an ambiguous military deployment or incident occurs. The deadline and geographical scope are precisely specified.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates a military invasion of Greenland during or before 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Land territory includes all area recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark as of the market's creation. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·