Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title suggests the price target must be hit during the month of December, but the resolution text explicitly counts any touch between market creation and the close of the final trading day in December 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market title suggests the price target must be hit during the month of December, but the resolution text explicitly counts any touch between market creation and the close of the final trading day in December 2026. This means an early drop prior to December would trigger a positive resolution. Aside from this scope difference, the technical parameters are well-defined: resolution relies on the 1-minute Low on Yahoo Finance during regular trading hours, with a strict hierarchical fallback list (Wall Street Journal, Google Finance, MarketWatch) if primary data is missing.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Market explained
This market measures whether the S&P 500 (SPX) drops to or below $4,500 based on 1-minute candle low prices during regular trading hours between market creation and the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the S&P 500 (SPX) records a final Low price equal to or below $4,500 at any point between market creation and market close on the final trading day of December 2026. Only regular trading hours on the primary exchange are considered; official market closures are excluded. The market resolves to No if no qualifying 1-minute candle meets this threshold by the close of the final trading day of December 2026. Resolution is determined using Yahoo Finance 1-minute interval data. If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable, backup sources are Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and MarketWatch, in that order. If all are unavailable by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, available data at that time decides the outcome.
Resolution source
Yahoo Finance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·