Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and a straightforward overall condition.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and a straightforward overall condition. Participants should note that the phrase 'serves any time' could leave room for debate regarding whether brief pretrial detention or temporary holding following an arrest qualifies as serving time in jail versus serving a formal sentence. For resolution, official U.S. government records are the primary source, but the market also permits relying on a consensus of credible reporting if official records are not definitive or promptly available.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell serves time in a U.S. jail or prison prior to the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined primarily using official information from the U.S. Government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. Government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·