Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market establishes a strict and clear standard for resolution, requiring a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress under Article I, Section 8 and signed into law.
Read the full assessment
The market establishes a strict and clear standard for resolution, requiring a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress under Article I, Section 8 and signed into law. It explicitly rules out Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs), executive orders, and unilateral military actions, which prevents confusion in the event of major hostilities that fall short of a formal declaration. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified official legislative record or government register, but congressional enactments of this nature are universally documented and unambiguous in practice.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress by December 31, 2026. Military actions, authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, and presidential statements alone do not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress passed under Article I, Section 8, enacted by Congress and signed into law between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not count unless accompanied by a formal declaration enacted into law. The market resolves to No if no qualifying formal declaration occurs by the deadline. A clear consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A clear consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·