Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question title uses the phrase hit (HIGH), which typically suggests an intraday high would trigger a positive resolution, but the rules explicitly state that intraday highs, trades, or bids do not count.
Read the full assessment
The question title uses the phrase hit (HIGH), which typically suggests an intraday high would trigger a positive resolution, but the rules explicitly state that intraday highs, trades, or bids do not count. Resolution depends strictly on the official daily CME settlement price for the front-month contract meeting or exceeding the target by the end of December 2026. In addition, the title omits the specific target year provided in the detailed text. The data source is a single, authoritative exchange with an objective published settlement figure, and rules explicitly define contract rollover schedules and exclude later price corrections.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market explained
This market measures whether the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $12,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. Only official front-month settlement prices qualify, while intraday highs and prices are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above $12,000 on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoints, or indicative prices do not count. The Active Month is defined as the nearest designated delivery-cycle month (Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec) that is not the spot month, rolling on the First Position Date. The market resolves to No if this settlement price condition is not met by that deadline. Resolution relies on the first published settlement price on the CME Group website for each trading day, ignoring subsequent corrections. If the official settlement price is not published on the website within 72 hours of the final trading day ET, resolution will use settlement prices published across all CME channels up to that point.
Resolution source
CME Group website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·