Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title suggests that any intraday high touching $6,000 would trigger resolution, but the detailed rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, or bids do not qualify.
Read the full assessment
The market title suggests that any intraday high touching $6,000 would trigger resolution, but the detailed rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, or bids do not qualify. Instead, resolution strictly requires the official daily CME settlement price for the designated active front-month contract to reach or exceed $6,000 by the final trading day of December 2026. The source is an objective, named financial exchange with precise definitions of contract rollover, and initial publication takes precedence over subsequent price corrections.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market explained
This market measures whether CME Gold (GC) futures reach an official settlement price of $6,000 or higher by December 2026. Resolution is based strictly on first-published daily settlement prices for the front-month contract, ignoring intraday highs and subsequent corrections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures reaches or exceeds $6,000 on any trading day by the final trading day of December 2026. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, and subsequent corrections do not count. The market resolves to No if the settlement price does not reach $6,000 by that deadline. Resolution is determined by CME Group's daily settlement price page upon first publication, with a 72-hour fallback to all available CME channels if the website is unpublished.
Resolution source
CME Group website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·