Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules provide precise criteria and explicit calculations for determining market capitalization on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules provide precise criteria and explicit calculations for determining market capitalization on the first trading day. Outcomes rely on the primary exchange's official listing page with defined fallback procedures, and foreign currency values are converted using official Federal Reserve reference rates. Clear provisions govern edge cases, such as early resolution if an IPO becomes impossible, explicit handling of trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions, and an alphabetical tie-breaker if closing market capitalizations match exactly.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Waymo achieves the highest closing market capitalization in U.S. dollars on its first trading day among all companies completing an IPO in 2026. A notable rule is that ties are broken by alphabetical order of the listed company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Waymo completes an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day, or wins an exact tie via alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another company achieves a higher first-day closing market capitalization, or if Waymo becomes unable to complete an IPO (such as through acquisition or merger). Market cap is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price on the first trading day. Non-USD values are converted using the Federal Reserve's H.10 rate. Resolution is determined by data from the primary exchange's official listing page, with another reliable source as a fallback.
Resolution source
The primary exchange’s official listing page, with the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for currency conversions, or other reliable/credible sources if unavailable.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·