Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation method for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation method for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without specifying a designated pricing oracle, aggregator, or exchange, nor defining how liquidity is measured. During the volatile initial trading days of a newly launched token, price variations between decentralized liquidity pools and centralized exchanges can differ noticeably, leaving room for disagreement on which venue dictates the snapshot price.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Ethereal's governance token exceeds $2B exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $2B at that specified time. The market also resolves to No if Ethereal does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding price comes from the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·