Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution hinges on China commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over inhabited territory administered by Taiwan.
Read the full assessment
Resolution hinges on China commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over inhabited territory administered by Taiwan. This specific intent threshold creates potential disagreement during non-amphibious military actions, such as a naval blockade, missile strikes, or airspace incursions that stop short of attempting territorial control. The rules also explicitly exclude uninhabited islands, which could surprise participants expecting any territorial violation to count. Additionally, because resolution can be triggered by multiple separate official bodies or by a broad consensus of credible reporting without a defined hierarchy, the resolver has significant latitude to evaluate conflicting reports.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether China will initiate a military offensive to gain control over any part of Taiwan by the end of 2027. It specifically excludes uninhabited islands from qualifying territory.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan), including inhabited islands, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Uninhabited islands do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or alternatively by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·