brierpoınt
GeopoliticsCloses · in 48 days$2.8M volume

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market includes a specific early resolution condition: an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the December 31 deadline.

Read the full assessment

The market includes a specific early resolution condition: an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the December 31 deadline. While official government statements or announcements directly from Pete Hegseth are the primary resolution sources, the decider also reserves the right to resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some latitude in evaluating whether an unconfirmed report constitutes an official announcement.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

16%

chance

▲ +1 pts · 24h

Yes16¢
No85¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of… · Yes · 1MO 24.5 H 68.0 L 11.5 C 15.5−9.0 (−36.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −20 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC

The odds of Pete Hegseth being out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 fell from 46% to 26%, but there is insufficient evidence to determine a likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 56% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 8 Nov 2026, 10:40 UTCThe probability rose from 33% to 43%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 8 Nov 2026, 10:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Pete Hegseth leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense by December 31. An unusual feature is that an announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date triggers an immediate 'Yes' resolution, even if the effective date is later.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period between market creation and the specified date (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal prior to the market end date will immediately resolve the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

Official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·