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PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$6.1K volumePart of: Democratic VP Nominee 2028 →

Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly establish that resolution depends on the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly establish that resolution depends on the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election who accepts the nomination. The designated resolution source points to official Democratic Party channels, primarily their official website. There is also a clear provision specifying that subsequent replacements after the initial formal nomination will not alter the outcome.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

4%

chance

▼ −1.2 pts · 24h

Yes4¢
No96¢
Mark Kelly · Yes · 1MO 4.1 H 17.6 L 2.0 C 4.2+0.1 (+1.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 13 Nov 2026, 08:10 UTC

The market fell from 16% to 4%, moving alongside a similar downward repricing in related 2028 Democratic vice-presidential nominee outcomes, including Jon Ossoff.

  • Largest hourly change: 10:00 UTC, 68% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 726 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Jon Ossoff (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 08:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +12 pts · 12 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTCThe market price rose from 6% to 18%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Mark Kelly will be the first person to formally accept the Democratic nomination for Vice President of the United States for the 2028 presidential election. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Mark Kelly is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official party website.

Resolution source

A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official party website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·