Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes resolution: the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle who accepts the nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes resolution: the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle who accepts the nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, specifically referencing the party's official website. Additionally, the rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +0.85 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani becomes the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Zohran Mamdani is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the market resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official party website.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·