Will Jared Polis be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in 2028 who accepts the nomination.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in 2028 who accepts the nomination. The criteria are standard and clear, with an explicit rule confirming that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the outcome. The resolution source relies on official Democratic Party channels, primarily democrats.org, though the phrase referring to a consensus of official party sources leaves minor discretion rather than naming a single binding document.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jared Polis will be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle. A key feature is that only the first person formally nominated who accepts counts, and any subsequent replacements prior to election day are ignored.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Jared Polis is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 Presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first formally nominated person to accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the market resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the party website.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the official Democratic Party website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·