Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution requires the named individual to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, with a clear fallback if no election occurs by June 30, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution requires the named individual to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, with a clear fallback if no election occurs by June 30, 2027. The primary source is the official publication from the French Constitutional Council, though market deciders retain some discretion by permitting a consensus of credible reporting as an alternative.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
40%
chance▼ −1.7 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Teddy Riner will be an official candidate on the ballot for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Teddy Riner is included on the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. The market resolves to No if he is not included on this list. If no list is published before the election, the market resolves based on the candidates who actually appear on the ballot. If no list is published and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
The official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·