Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves cleanly on whether the specified candidate wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly incorporating any second-round runoff.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves cleanly on whether the specified candidate wins the next Argentine presidential election, explicitly incorporating any second-round runoff. Primary resolution relies on consensus reporting across credible outlets, with clear fallback authority given directly to official government bodies, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral. There is also a generous one-year deadline buffer after the scheduled election date to account for any certification delays, after which the market resolves to Other.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Market explained
This market measures whether Dante Gebel will win the next Argentine presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dante Gebel wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including via any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official Argentine government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·