Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Argentine presidential election, including any required runoff round.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official winner of the next Argentine presidential election, including any required runoff round. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit recourse to official government election bodies if there is any ambiguity. A long backstop deadline in late 2028 ensures standard certification and post-election processes can fully conclude without triggering an early or unintended resolution.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Market explained
This market measures whether Daniel Hadad will win the next Argentinian presidential election scheduled for October 24, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Daniel Hadad wins the next Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, official results reported by Argentinian government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral, will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and Dirección Nacional Electoral used in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·