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PoliticsCloses · Listed close date has passed.$35.1K volumePart of: Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? →

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?

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Gotcha risk

High

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The question asks whether the next governing coalition will include Labour and Green, but the rules enforce strict mutual-exclusivity criteria that could easily surprise readers.

Read the full assessment

The question asks whether the next governing coalition will include Labour and Green, but the rules enforce strict mutual-exclusivity criteria that could easily surprise readers. Resolution requires a party to hold at least one formal Cabinet post; in New Zealand politics, support arrangements where ministers sit outside Cabinet or provide confidence-and-supply are common, but are explicitly disqualified here. Furthermore, resolution follows a most-complete-match rule: if Labour, Green, and a third party form a government, this specific option resolves to No if a more complete three-party option exists, contrary to the intuitive reading of include. Government confirmation ultimately relies on official appointments by the Governor-General, backed by an explicit fallback date of December 31, 2027.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
High

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

13%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes13¢
No87¢

Labour + Green · Yes · 1MO 27.4 H 40.6 L 11.4 C 13.3−14.1 (−51.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −13 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 11:10 UTC

The market fell from 25% to 14% as part of a broader repricing across coalition outcomes, with National + ACT + NZF rising while alternative combinations declined.

  • Largest hourly change: 07:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 17 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: National + ACT + NZF (up), Labour + Green + Maori (down), Other (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +22 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 07:55 UTCThe price rose from 25% to 47% as 3 related outcomes moved together, including gains for National + ACT + NZF and declines for Labour + Green + Maori, pointing to a broader repricing of coalition scenarios as the likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 06:55 UTCThe probability fell from 25% to 13% as related coalition outcomes repriced together, with National + ACT + NZF rising while other Labour-led options also declined.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 11:06 UTC

Resolution rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.

Market explained

This market measures whether the first governing coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election will be Labour + Green. Resolution depends on parties holding formal Cabinet posts rather than outside support arrangements, and uses specific tie-breaker rules based on matching completeness, seats, and votes.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the first ruling coalition confirmed after the next general election includes both Labour and Green, and no other listed market option more completely covers the coalition. To qualify as part of the coalition, a party must provide at least one Cabinet minister; parties supporting from outside Cabinet via confidence-and-supply agreements do not qualify. The market resolves to No if any party listed in the option is not part of the governing coalition, or if a more complete matching option exists. The market resolves to Other if the coalition does not include all parties of any listed option, or if no coalition is confirmed by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Ties between equally matching options are broken first by total seats in the House of Representatives, then by total valid party votes. Ministers appointed under caretaker circumstances are excluded. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or official New Zealand government information if ambiguity arises.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·