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PoliticsCloses · Listed close date has passed.$20.9K volumePart of: Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government? →

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market includes intricate matching and tie-breaker mechanics that participants must closely track.

Read the full assessment

This market includes intricate matching and tie-breaker mechanics that participants must closely track. A party is only counted as part of the coalition if it holds at least one formal Cabinet post, explicitly excluding confidence-and-supply or cooperation agreements outside Cabinet. Furthermore, resolution uses a 'most complete match' rule rather than an intuitive simple match: if a wider coalition forms, this specific option will only resolve positively if all three parties hold Cabinet seats and no other listed option covers the coalition more completely. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official government appointments serving as a fallback. A hard deadline of December 31, 2027 is set, resolving to 'Other' if government formation fails to conclude by that date.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
High

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

3%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No97¢

Labour + Green + Maori · Yes · 1MO 26.0 H 44.5 L 0.6 C 3.5−22.6 (−86.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −17 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 11:40 UTC

The probability fell from 17% to 0% as 3 related coalition outcomes repriced together, with alternative options such as National + ACT + NZF rising, serving as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 07:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 17 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: National + ACT + NZF (up), Labour + Green (up), Other (up).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 09:40 UTCThe market fell from 17% to 6% with only 17 hours remaining until market close, as the outcome settled toward zero near the deadline alongside shifts in related coalition markets.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Resolution rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.

Market explained

This market measures whether the first governing coalition formed after the next New Zealand general election consists of or is most completely matched by the Labour Party, Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori, where qualifying parties must hold at least one Cabinet minister post.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the first post-election ruling coalition includes Labour, Green, and Maori, each holding at least one Cabinet minister post under non-caretaker appointments, and this option is the most complete match among available options. Parties providing confidence-and-supply without Cabinet posts do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another listed option more completely matches the coalition or if any of Labour, Green, or Maori are excluded. The market resolves to Other if no listed option contains all of its parties within the coalition, or if no ruling coalition is confirmed by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Ties between equally matching options are broken by combined House of Representatives seats, then by total valid party votes. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official New Zealand government information prevailing in case of ambiguity.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the government of New Zealand in case of ambiguity

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·