Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting confirming a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement. The rules explicitly require a general pause across the conflict rather than localized ceasefires or restrictions on specific target categories, which may require subjective judgment if a partial or phased de-escalation deal is signed. Crucially, if an agreement with an explicit dated commitment to stop fighting is finalized before the deadline, the market resolves positively even if the ceasefire's effective date begins after the deadline passes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026. The agreement qualifies for resolution even if its implementation date occurs after the deadline, provided it was reached beforehand.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement is officially reached between Russia and Ukraine by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that explicitly commit to a general suspension of direct military engagement effective on a specified date. Unilateral pauses, informal understandings, future negotiation frameworks without explicit commitments, or localized/limited restrictions do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Ceasefire agreement must be reached by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.