Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
14 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2027 at 70% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $7.8M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by various deadline dates. Each market measures whether an agreement suspending direct military engagement is mutually agreed and announced by the specified date and time.
How the outcomes relate
The event is organized as a timeline ladder of increasing date thresholds. Because each market asks if an agreement is reached 'by' a specified deadline, reaching a qualifying ceasefire before an earlier date means that market and all subsequent later-dated markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if a mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses qualify if they include a dated commitment to stop fighting across the general conflict. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, or category-specific/location-specific restrictions do not qualify. If reached before the deadline, it resolves to Yes even if it takes effect later. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 70% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 30, 2027 | 68% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| October 31, 2027 | 67% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| September 30, 2027 | 63% | ▲ 1 | Med | Low | |
| August 31, 2027 | 60% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| July 31, 2027 | 59% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| June 30, 2027 | 53% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| May 31, 2027 | 53% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| April 30, 2027 | 43% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| March 31, 2027 | 36% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| February 28, 2027 | 28% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| January 31, 2027 | 24% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| December 31 | 11% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 30 | 3% | ▼ 1 | Low | High | |
| October 31 | — | — | Med | High | Resolved |