JD Vance out as VP by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Participants should note that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate affirmative resolution, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
Participants should note that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate affirmative resolution, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline. In addition, broader scenarios such as being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from carrying out duties qualify for an early positive outcome, which requires subjective judgment to evaluate. Resolution relies on official government statements or statements from Vance himself, with consensus reporting from credible media outlets serving as an alternative source.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether JD Vance ceases to be Vice President of the United States by December 31, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if JD Vance ceases to be Vice President of the United States for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Yes resolution also occurs if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties during this timeframe. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution decisions are based on official information from JD Vance and the United States government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from JD Vance and the United States government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·