Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market establishes straightforward criteria: it resolves in the affirmative if David Lisnard finishes in the top two of the first round or wins outright with over 50% of the vote in the next French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The market establishes straightforward criteria: it resolves in the affirmative if David Lisnard finishes in the top two of the first round or wins outright with over 50% of the vote in the next French presidential election. If the election is held early, the rules still apply to that next election. The resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a precise official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous. A clear backstop date of December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market to negative if no election or first-round result has occurred by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
20%
chance▲ +2.75 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether David Lisnard will either advance to the runoff second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if David Lisnard advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if he does not advance, if no such election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·