Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

This event tracks which candidates will qualify for the runoff or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election. Each market measures whether a specific named candidate advances to the second round or secures over 50% of the vote in the first round.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of separate binary markets for individual candidates. Under the French two-round system, up to two candidates can advance to the second round (or one can win outright in the first round), meaning up to two markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the named candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round. Otherwise, it resolves to No. If no election occurs or the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior used if ambiguity arises.

Key dates

• Expected election timing: Currently expected to be held around April 2027.
• Resolution deadline: Dec 31, 2027 — Market resolves to No if first-round results are not known by 11:59 PM ET.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government / Ministry of the Interior if ambiguous

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 21 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC