Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined, requiring Anthropic shares to be listed and open for trading on a public exchange by a specific cutoff time. Official SEC filings, exchange notices, and corporate press releases serve as the primary sources, leaving minimal room for subjective judgment. Participants should note the specific clause dictating that an acquisition by an already public company triggers an immediate resolution to No prior to the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Anthropic will complete an initial public offering (IPO) and have its shares listed and trading publicly by October 31, 2026. An acquisition by an existing public company triggers an immediate No resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if this does not occur by the deadline. The market immediately resolves to No if Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public. Resolution is determined using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (such as SEC Form S-1 or Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Deadline: — Anthropic shares must be listed and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange, including SEC filings, exchange listing confirmations, official press releases, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.