Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether an announcement is made rather than verified physical reality on the ground. The rules explicitly state that an official announcement that ground forces have withdrawn is sufficient for a positive resolution even if incursions continue or territory remains occupied. Additionally, Shebaa Farms is specifically defined as Israeli territory for resolution purposes. While official Israeli government announcements serve as the primary source, the rules also permit resolution based on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation regarding when reporting qualifies as a consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Israel announces the complete withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanon by September 30, 2026. An announcement suffices even if incursions continue or some territory remains under control, and the Shebaa Farms area is excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israel announces that it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of completed withdrawal is sufficient even if some territory remains controlled or ground incursions continue, but announcements of planned or future withdrawals do not count. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory and is disregarded for resolution. The market resolves to No otherwise. Information from the Israeli government serves as the primary resolution source, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Withdrawal announcement deadline: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Israeli government, with overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as an alternative
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.