Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2027 at 32% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $712.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Israel will announce the withdrawal of all its ground forces from Lebanon by specific target deadlines. Each market corresponds to a distinct cutoff date.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder with different target dates. Because withdrawing by an earlier deadline implies having withdrawn before a later deadline, multiple markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not suffice, but an announcement of completed withdrawal is sufficient even if some territory remains controlled or incursions continue. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory and excluded from consideration. If no qualifying announcement or reporting occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for the 2026 withdrawal market.
- December 31, 2027 deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for the 2027 withdrawal market.
Resolution source
Information from the Israeli government, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 32% | ▼ 1 | Med | Low | |
| December 31 | 2% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| March 31, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | — |