Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if the individual will be seen in public, but the rules broaden this to include digital appearances and live broadcasts, which may not occur in a public setting. The rules also refer to him as Supreme Leader of Iran, which could create confusion if he is seen without holding that office. Determination of whether any footage is authentic and not AI-generated, archival, or staged relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official certifying authority. Additionally, the footage must be both captured and publicly released within the market window, excluding posthumous releases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei is authentically photographed or videotaped in public or via a digital appearance by September 30.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and September 30 (ET). The images or video must be authentic and both captured and released within the market timeframe. Digital appearances, such as live broadcasts, qualify. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, and posthumous releases do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined by the qualifying image or video and a consensus of credible reporting regarding its authenticity.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: September 30 (ET)
Resolution source
The image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.