Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
1 live outcome · highest priced: December 31 at 10% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $1.5M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, identified as the Supreme Leader of Iran, is photographed, videotaped, or seen in a digital appearance such as a live broadcast by specific target dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple timeline-based markets with different cutoff dates. Because the markets represent cumulative timeframes, if an earlier deadline resolves Yes, subsequent later deadlines will also resolve Yes. Thus, more than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the specified cutoff date in Eastern Time. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, qualify. The footage or imagery must be authentic and both captured and released within the market's timeframe; archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, and posthumous releases do not count. If no qualifying media is released by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- October deadline: October 31 (ET); year not stated in the rules.
- December deadline: December 31 (ET); year not stated in the rules.
Resolution source
The image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |
| October 31 | — | — | Med | Med | Resolved |