Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear, objective visual criteria for capture based on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, specifying the required map layers and geographic coordinates. Control must persist across at least one full daily update cycle to avoid triggering on temporary mapping anomalies. Once complete capture is established on the map, subsequent loss of control does not reverse a positive outcome. The rules also provide an explicit fallback hierarchy (DeepStateMap, then credible reporting) if the primary tracker becomes permanently unavailable, alongside a specific exception allowing a positive resolution if actual control passes via a negotiated settlement even if unreflected on the map.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Russia will capture the entire municipality of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, based primarily on mapping by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the entirety of Kostyantynivka is shaded red on the ISW map by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying red shading includes Assessed Russian Control, Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine, or Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours, but excludes Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle or until the next finalized update. Minor boundary alignment discrepancies along the border still qualify. Russia establishing actual control via a negotiated settlement also qualifies for Yes, but mere de jure announcements do not. Subsequent loss of control does not affect a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if the area is not shaded red by the resolution date. The primary source is the ISW map, followed by DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable, and a consensus of credible reporting if both are permanently unavailable.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Deadline for Russia to capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka.
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.