Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

This event tracks whether Russia will capture the entire municipality of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast by various specified target dates. Each market measures Russian control over the municipality according to mapping data by a designated deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline of different deadline dates. Because capturing the municipality by an earlier deadline implies it has also been captured before subsequent deadlines, multiple markets can resolve Yes. Conversely, if control is not achieved until a later date, earlier deadlines will resolve No while later ones may resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka by 11:59 PM ET on its specified deadline. Capture is defined as the entire municipality being shaded on the ISW map under 'Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances', persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Shading under 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' or 'Claimed Russian Territory' does not qualify. Actual control achieved through a negotiated settlement also resolves Yes. Once qualified, subsequent loss of control does not alter the resolution. If the condition is not met by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Key dates

• October deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET
• December deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

ISW Ukraine map (with DeepStateMap and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 25 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC