PoliticsCloses Jan 1, 2027 · in 48 days$633K volumePart of: Pete Hegseth impeached by...? →

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth by December 31, 2026.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes at least one article of impeachment against Pete Hegseth by December 31, 2026. A notable detail is that the text refers to him as 'United States Secretary of War', an office that does not officially exist today (the position is Secretary of Defense), which introduces slight wording oddity, though his name is explicitly specified. Additionally, there is an early-resolution clause: if Hegseth permanently vacates his office before any impeachment vote passes, the market resolves immediately to No. Official US government information serves as the primary source, with credible reporting as a secondary fallback.

Resolver: Medium
Timing: Low
Wording: Medium
Exceptions: Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 6 Nov 2026, 00:34 UTC

Current price

chance

▲ +0.65 pts · 24h

Yes3¢

No97¢

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −75 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 19:10 UTC

30 days ago▼ −75 · 10 Nov

The probability fell sharply from 75% to 6%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

Largest hourly change: 18:00 UTC, 84% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 51 days after the move hour.
2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: March 31, 2027 (down), June 30, 2027 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 23:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 07:10 UTCThe price rose from 70% to 81%, moving alongside 2 related markets for later impeachment deadlines (June 30, 2027 and March 31, 2027) which also moved up as part of a broader repricing.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 07:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +10 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 11:55 UTCThe price rose from 63% to 73%, but with no available news candidates or supporting facts, there is insufficient evidence to determine a likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Jul 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Pete Hegseth is impeached by the US House of Representatives by December 31, 2026. The rules refer to his office as "Secretary of War" and dictate an immediate early "No" resolution if he permanently leaves office before being impeached.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment against United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth by simple majority vote between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Neither a Senate trial, conviction, nor removal from office is necessary. The market resolves to No if these criteria are not met by the deadline. It also resolves immediately to No if Pete Hegseth permanently vacates the specified office before meeting the Yes criteria. Resolution is determined by information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 6 Nov 2026, 00:34 UTC