Will Vladan Petrov win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines what constitutes a win in the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines what constitutes a win in the next Serbian presidential election, explicitly covering early elections and potential runoff rounds. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if results are disputed. A longstop deadline of March 31, 2028, provides ample time for certification and resolves to Other if no definitive winner is established by then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladan Petrov will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vladan Petrov wins the next Serbian presidential election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Serbian government (specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·