Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly resolves based on whether Aleksandar Vučić wins the next presidential election in Serbia, accommodating early elections and runoff rounds.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly resolves based on whether Aleksandar Vučić wins the next presidential election in Serbia, accommodating early elections and runoff rounds. The resolution source relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia if ambiguity arises. A backstop date of March 31, 2028, ensures the market will resolve to 'Other' if election results remain unresolved, giving clear boundaries for timing.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Aleksandar Vučić will win the next Serbian presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aleksandar Vučić wins the next Serbian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves based solely on official results from the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·