Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution requires a two-part condition: an official policy announcement from the Iranian government and actual fee collection before the deadline.
Read the full assessment
Resolution requires a two-part condition: an official policy announcement from the Iranian government and actual fee collection before the deadline. Because no single official registry or designated monitoring agency is specified to confirm collection on the water, the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether fees have genuinely begun and whether they are mandatory in practice rather than isolated incidents, normal port charges, or unilateral vessel seizures.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Iranian government officially announces and implements mandatory transit fees, tolls, or similar charges on commercial vessels passing through or accessing the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting mandatory fees, tolls, charges, or tariffs from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz before December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Both an official Iranian government announcement and credible reporting confirming that collection has started are required. Qualifying fees must be an announced policy applying generally to commercial vessels or a defined subcategory, and must be mandatory in practice. Isolated demanded charges, normal port fees, customs duties, and fees charged solely by non-Iranian entities do not qualify. The market resolves to No if both criteria are not satisfied by the deadline. Official Iranian government announcements and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Official announcements from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·