Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves to Yes based on an official announcement of departure, not necessarily the physical exit taking place before the deadline.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves to Yes based on an official announcement of departure, not necessarily the physical exit taking place before the deadline. An announcement made before December 31, 2026 indicating that he will leave office at a future date within 18 months will trigger a Yes resolution immediately, even if he remains in office past the deadline. Additionally, if he never assumes the role or completes a predefined term as scheduled without an early departure announcement, the market resolves to No. The primary sources are official statements from the individual or the Federal Reserve, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary basis only if an unannounced departure occurs.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kevin Warsh's departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve is officially announced by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an official, definitive announcement is made by Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or their authorized representatives confirming his departure effective within 18 months and prior to the scheduled end of his term. Resignations, removals, and other departures qualify, but temporary leaves, suspensions, conditional statements, pending offers, and jokes do not. The market also resolves to Yes if Warsh formally leaves the post early without an announcement and credible reporting confirms it. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Official information from Warsh and the Federal Reserve decides resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.
Resolution source
Official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·