Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- Not captured
- 1 hour before close
- Not captured
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying general closure of Iranian airspace across the Tehran FIR, explicitly distinguishing broad commercial aviation suspensions from partial, regional, or visual flight rule restrictions. Detailed historical examples of both qualifying and non-qualifying past events are provided to anchor the interpretation. Resolution relies on official notices from Iranian aviation authorities alongside a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit carve-outs excluding third-party foreign restrictions and natural disasters or weather events. The end date is set to 11:59 PM ET on September 30.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran implements a general closure of its entire commercial airspace before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET, distinguishing nationwide closures from regional restrictions or closures caused strictly by natural events.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace (Tehran FIR) for commercial flights between market creation and September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. Closures that broadly apply to commercial aviation across Iran qualify even if limited exceptions exist for pre-approved flights. Closures do not qualify if they are partial or regional, or if they occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions. Restrictions or no-fly zones imposed by foreign nations or airlines do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying general closure occurs within the timeframe. Resolution is decided using official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: September 30 at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.