Iran full airspace closure by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 27% (+4 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $3M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace before specific cutoff dates. Each market corresponds to a distinct target deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple date-based milestone markets. Because each market asks if a qualifying airspace closure occurs between creation and its specified date, an early closure can cause multiple markets to resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace (or Tehran FIR) applicable to all commercial flights, not solely due to weather, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Limited exceptions (such as pre-approved flights) qualify, but partial closures, regional bans, or foreign-imposed restrictions do not. Otherwise, it resolves No. Resolution is determined by official Iranian aviation authority information and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31 deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET
- December 31 deadline: Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on December 31
Resolution source
Official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 27% | ▲ 4 | Low | Med | |
| November 30 | 17% | ▲ 6 | Low | Med | |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | — | — | Low | High | Resolved |
| October 31 | — | — | Low | High | Resolved |