Will The Drama win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on the official Academy Awards results, referencing AMPAS announcements and the live broadcast.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on the official Academy Awards results, referencing AMPAS announcements and the live broadcast. However, participants should be aware of specific exceptional mechanics: the market resolves early to No if the film is not included in the official Best Picture nominees announcement, an unusual alphabetical tie-breaker rule applies if multiple winners are declared, and a prolonged delay past June 30, 2027, resolves to Other rather than waiting indefinitely.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film 'The Drama' will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. It features early resolution to No upon nomination announcements and an alphabetical tie-breaker rule.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 'The Drama' wins the Best Picture award at the 99th Academy Awards. In the event of a tie for the award, resolution favors the nominated title that comes first in alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if 'The Drama' is not officially nominated for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, or if another eligible film wins. The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by official information from AMPAS and the Academy Awards, including their website and the live ceremony broadcast, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS (including their website and live broadcast), or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·