Macron out by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has straightforward criteria: it resolves affirmatively if Emmanuel Macron ceases to serve as the President of France at any point prior to the end of December 31, 2026, and settles immediately if he leaves office early.
Read the full assessment
The market has straightforward criteria: it resolves affirmatively if Emmanuel Macron ceases to serve as the President of France at any point prior to the end of December 31, 2026, and settles immediately if he leaves office early. The rules prioritize official announcements from the French government, though they also permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.7 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Emmanuel Macron leaves the office of President of France by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET inclusive. The market resolves immediately if Macron departs from office before the expiry date. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is information from the government of France, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Information from the government of France, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·