Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title references hitting a high of $5,000, but the rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, lows, or indicative prices do not count.
Read the full assessment
The market title references hitting a high of $5,000, but the rules explicitly state that intraday trades, highs, lows, or indicative prices do not count. Resolution strictly requires the official daily CME settlement price for the designated active front-month contract to reach or exceed $5,000 on or before the final trading day of December 2026. The source is a single named authority with automated roll rules based on the First Position Date, and the market locks to the first published settlement figure on the CME Group website regardless of any subsequent revisions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market explained
This market measures whether the CME settlement price for front-month Gold (GC) futures reaches $5,000 or higher by the end of December 2026. Only official daily settlement prices count, excluding intraday highs or price corrections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures equals or exceeds $5,000 on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Only the Active Month settlement price as first published counts; intraday trades, highs, lows, midpoint values, and subsequent corrections do not count. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met during the specified timeframe. The CME Group website serves as the deciding resolution source. If the final settlement price is not published within 72 hours of the final trading day, resolution relies on all settlement prices published across CME channels up to that point.
Resolution source
CME Group website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·