Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 25%-30%?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the margin of victory is calculated based on certified percentages of total valid votes cast for the top two finishers. Official certified results from the state election authority serve as the primary source, though credible consensus reporting is allowed as a backup. A definitive cutoff date of June 30, 2027, is established in case results are contested or delayed, and specific tie-break rules and boundary conditions (resolving to the higher bracket on exact ties) are explicitly detailed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election by a margin of victory between 25% and 30%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee finishes in first place and the margin of victory over the second-place candidate is within the 25% to 30% bracket. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' vote shares, calculated from total valid votes cast. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the Republican nominee does not win within this exact bracket. The market resolves to Other if election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if a tie occurs between two or more unlisted candidates. Ties between listed candidates resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. Resolution is decided using official results published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 South Carolina Senate election is expected to be held.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.