South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 South Carolina Senate election. Markets measure specific percentage margin brackets for the winning party or candidate based on the official share of valid votes received by the top two candidates.

How the outcomes relate

Markets in this event represent mutually exclusive margin brackets and candidate victory outcomes. At most one market can resolve Yes based on the calculated percentage margin of victory between the top two candidates, with tiebreak and boundary rules assigning exact boundary values to the higher bracket.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to Yes if the final margin of victory matches its specified candidate and percentage bracket, and No otherwise. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the top two candidates' valid vote counts divided by total valid votes cast. Resolution occurs once official certified results are published, or via an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — Date the election is expected to take place.
• Resolution Deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC