Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 20%-25%?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the margin of victory is calculated using valid vote totals divided by all valid votes cast. Resolution relies on official certified results from the state electoral authority, with a clear fallback to consensus reporting if necessary. Detailed tie-breaking procedures and boundary rounding rules (resolving to the higher bracket if exactly on the boundary) are explicitly defined. A generous deadline of June 30, 2027 accounts for potential recounts or certification delays without introducing premature resolution risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election by a margin of victory between 20% and 25% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party candidate wins the election with a margin of victory between 20% and 25% against the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference between their percentages of total valid votes cast. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves No if the Republican candidate does not win, or wins by a margin outside this bracket. Specific tiebreak rules apply if top candidates tie. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if a tie occurs between two or more unlisted candidates. Resolution is decided by the official results published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected Election Day: — The expected date of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election.
- Resolution Cutoff Date: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
The state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.