Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 15%-20%?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define how the margin of victory is calculated based on the official certification from the South Carolina state electoral authority. Mathematical formulas for percentage of total valid votes and boundary tie-breaks resolving to the higher margin bracket are explicitly specified. A participant should note the specific tie-breaking mechanics based on alphabetical order of ballot-listed last names, the replacement nominee clause, and the June 30, 2027 resolution timeout fallback to Other if certified results are unresolved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by a margin of victory between 15% and 20%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee finishes in first place with a margin of victory between 15% and 20% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference in percentage of total valid votes. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher margin bracket. The market resolves to No if the Republican nominee wins by a margin outside this range, if another candidate wins, or if a tie occurs that resolves to a different bracket. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if an unresolved tie between unlisted candidates occurs. The primary resolution source is the official certified results published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 South Carolina Senate election is expected to take place.
- Resolution cutoff: — The deadline after which the market resolves to Other if results remain unknown.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.