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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of South Carolina Senate Election Margin of Victory →

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close 78¢
Known at
$17.8K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
24 hours before
Not captured
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

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The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated using valid vote totals and define boundary handling, resolving exact boundary ties to the higher bracket. Official certified results from the state electoral authority serve as the primary source, with an explicit fallback to consensus reporting and a definitive cutoff date on June 30, 2027. Note the detailed tie-breaking mechanics based on alphabetical order of last names, and ensure the calculation uses the total sum of all valid votes cast rather than just the top two candidates' vote share.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Med

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
76¢77¢78¢79¢80¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1Nov 4
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢Oct 14Oct 21Oct 28Nov 4

Why it moved before close

Down 11 points · 29 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The price fell from 32% to 21% as related outcomes for the South Carolina Senate race repriced simultaneously, with three other outcome markets moving in the opposite direction.

  • Largest hourly change: 18:00 UTC, 46% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 5 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Graham 0-5% (up), Andrews Wins (up), Graham 10-15% (up).

No news-backed explanation was ready before close.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

Down 10 points · 28 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The probability fell from 39% to 29% as part of a broader repricing across related election outcome markets, with the 10%-15% margin market also moving down.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 40% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 6 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Graham 10-15% (down).

The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 01:35 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election by a margin of victory between 5% and 10%.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate wins the election with a margin of victory between 5% and 10% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference between their shares of all valid votes. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the Republican candidate does not win or wins by a different margin. It resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, or in specific tie scenarios involving unlisted candidates. Resolution is decided using the official results published by the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If a recount occurs before certification, resolution waits until the recount is completed.

Key dates

  • Expected election date: — Expected date for the 2026 South Carolina Senate election.
  • Resolution fallback deadline: — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

The 2026 South Carolina Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 South Carolina Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.