Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks a simple yes-or-no style query about Tesla, but the rules state the market will resolve to whichever company holds the third-largest market cap on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The question asks a simple yes-or-no style query about Tesla, but the rules state the market will resolve to whichever company holds the third-largest market cap on December 31, 2026. A reader looking only at the question might not realize the year is specifically set to 2026. Additionally, there is no specified financial data provider or standard methodology for calculating global market caps across international exchanges; instead, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if rankings are close or differ across financial data platforms.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla will rank as the third-largest company in the world by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla is the third-largest company globally by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if any other company holds that ranking at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·