Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial data provider or official exchange feed, leaving resolution to subjective judgment if different financial media track market caps using different methodology, share classes, or currency conversion rates.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial data provider or official exchange feed, leaving resolution to subjective judgment if different financial media track market caps using different methodology, share classes, or currency conversion rates. Furthermore, global stock markets close at different times across time zones, and the rules do not specify which time zone or market close applies. Readers should also note that while the question does not specify a year, the rules explicitly set the date to December 31, 2026.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Aramco will rank as the world's third-largest company by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Saudi Aramco is the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. It resolves No if another company holds the third-largest market cap at that time. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·