Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a positive resolution: an official award or explicit declaration by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) stating that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a positive resolution: an official award or explicit declaration by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) stating that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules explicitly clarify that external mathematical consensus or published proofs without CMI's official recognition do not qualify, nor does the method of proof (e.g., AI involvement or counterexamples) alter the criteria. The primary source is CMI's official website and communications, leaving minimal room for ambiguous interpretations or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
10%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis, or otherwise officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Riemann Hypothesis has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially declares the Riemann Hypothesis solved or awards a Millennium Prize for it by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Riemann Hypothesis or officially declares it solved on its website or in an official communication by the deadline. Qualifying resolutions include a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other solution accepted by CMI, regardless of whether AI produced it or if a prize is accepted or declined. Published proofs accepted by the broader math community do not qualify without CMI's declaration. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying declaration or award occurs by the deadline. Resolution relies primarily on official CMI information, with a consensus of credible reporting used if needed to confirm the declaration.
Resolution source
Clay Mathematics Institute official website or communications, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·